The impact of uncertainty in satellite data on the assessment of flood inundation models

The performance of flood inundation models is often assessed using satellite observed data; however these data have inherent uncertainty. In this study we assess the impact of this uncertainty when calibrating a flood inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) for a flood event in December 2006 on the River Dee, North Wales, UK. The flood extent is delineated from an ERS-2 SAR image of the event using an active contour model (snake), and water levels at the flood margin calculated through intersection of the shoreline vector with LiDAR topographic data. Gauged water levels are used to create a reference water surface slope for comparison with the satellite-derived water levels. Residuals between the satellite observed data points and those from the reference line are spatially clustered into groups of similar values. We show that model calibration achieved using pattern matching of observed and predicted flood extent is negatively influenced by this spatial dependency in the data. By contrast, model calibration using water elevations produces realistic calibrated optimum friction parameters even when spatial dependency is present. To test the impact of removing spatial dependency a new method of evaluating flood inundation model performance is developed by using multiple random subsamples of the water surface elevation data points. By testing for spatial dependency using Moran’s I, multiple subsamples of water elevations that have no significant spatial dependency are selected. The model is then calibrated against these data and the results averaged. This gives a near identical result to calibration using spatially dependent data, but has the advantage of being a statistically robust assessment of model performance in which we can have more confidence. Moreover, by using the variations found in the subsamples of the observed data it is possible to assess the effects of observational uncertainty on the assessment of flooding risk

Estimating the influence of different urban canopy cover types on atmospheric particulate matter (PM10) pollution abatement in London UK

In the urban environment atmospheric pollution by PM10 (particulate matter with a diameter less than 10 x 10-6 m) is a problem that can have adverse effects on human health, particularly increasing rates of respiratory disease. The main contributors to atmospheric PM10 in the urban environment are road traffic, industry and powerproduction. The urban tree canopy is a receptor for removing PM10s from the atmosphere due to the large surface areas generated by leaves and air turbulence created by the structure of the urban forest. In this context urban greening has long been known as a mechanism to contribute towards PM10 removal from the air, furthermore, tree canopy cover has a role in contributing towards a more sustainable urban environment.The work reported here has been carried out within the BRIDGE project (SustainaBle uRban plannIng Decision support accountinG for urban mEtabolism). The aim of this project is to assess the fluxes of energy, water, carbon dioxide and particulates within the urban environment and develope a DSS (Decision Support System) to aid urban planners in sustainable development. A combination of published urban canopy cover data from ground, airborne and satellite based surveys was used. For each of the 33 London boroughs the urban canopy was classified to three groups, urban woodland, street trees and garden trees and each group quantified in terms of ground cover. The total [PM10] for each borough was taken from the LAEI (London Atmospheric Emissions Inventory 2006) and the contribution to reducing [PM10] was assessed for each canopy type. Deposition to the urban canopy was assessed using the UFORE (Urban Forest Effects Model) approach. Deposition to the canopy, boundary layer height and percentage reduction of the [PM10] in the atmosphere was assessed using both hourly meterological data and [PM10] and seasonal data derived from annual models. Results from hourly and annual data were compared with measured values. The model was then applied to future predictions of annual [PM10] and future canopy cover scenarios for London. The contribution of each canopy type subjected to the different atmospheric [PM10] of the 33 London boroughs now and in the future will be discussed. Implementing these findings into a decision support system (DSS) for sustainable urban planning will also be discussed<br/

DVM: The World’s Biggest Game of Hide-and-Seek

Diel vertical migration (DVM) refers to the daily, synchronized movement of marine animals between the surface and deep layers of the open ocean. This behavior is the largest animal migration on the planet and is undertaken every single day by trillions of animals in every ocean. Like a big game of hide-and-seek, animals that perform DVM spend the day hiding from predators in the deep ocean, and then migrate to the surface to feed under the cover of darkness. In this article we will explore this incredible strategy for survival. We will introduce the animals involved, describe how the environment of the open ocean drives DVM, and reveal the questions still to be answered as the ocean environment continues to change

4He decay of excited states in 14C

A study of the 7Li(9Be,4He 10Be)2H reaction at E{beam}=70 MeV has been performed using resonant particle spectroscopy techniques and provides the first measurements of alpha-decaying states in 14C. Excited states are observed at 14.7, 15.5, 16.4, 18.5, 19.8, 20.6, 21.4, 22.4 and 24.0 MeV. The experimental technique was able to resolve decays to the various particle bound states in 10Be, and provides evidence for the preferential decay of the high energy excited states into states in 10Be at ~6 MeV. The decay processes are used to indicate the possible cluster structure of the 14C excited states.Comment: accepted for publication in PR

From the stable to the exotic: clustering in light nuclei

A great deal of research work has been undertaken in alpha-clustering study since the pioneering discovery of 12C+12C molecular resonances half a century ago. Our knowledge on physics of nuclear molecules has increased considerably and nuclear clustering remains one of the most fruitful domains of nuclear physics, facing some of the greatest challenges and opportunities in the years ahead. The occurrence of "exotic" shapes in light N=Z alpha-like nuclei is investigated. Various approaches of the superdeformed and hyperdeformed bands associated with quasimolecular resonant structures are presented. Evolution of clustering from stability to the drip-lines is examined: clustering aspects are, in particular, discussed for light exotic nuclei with large neutron excess such as neutron-rich Oxygen isotopes with their complete spectroscopy.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures, Presented at the International Symposium on "New Horizons in Fundamental Physics - From Neutrons Nuclei via Superheavy Elements and Supercritical Fields to Neutron Stars and Cosmic Rays" held at Makutsi Safari Farm, South Africa, December 23-29, 2015. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1402.6590, arXiv:1303.0960, arXiv:1408.0684, arXiv:1011.342

A Minireview Of Cellulose Nanocrystals And Its Potential Integration As Co-product In Bioethanol Production

Cellulose nanocrystals appeared as important bio-based products and the collected information in term of production, characterization and application suggest that this nanomaterial could be easily extrapolated to bioethanol production. This review describes recent published syntheses using chemical and enzymatic hydrolyses and different preparations such as high pressure homogenization. Their industrial and medical applications, such as controled of delivery carriers, suggest a large projection of this nanomaterial. 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Ensemble evaluation of hydrological model hypotheses

It is demonstrated for the first time how model parameter, structural and data uncertainties can be accounted for explicitly and simultaneously within the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. As an example application, 72 variants of a single soil moisture accounting store are tested as simplified hypotheses of runoff generation at six experimental grassland field-scale lysimeters through model rejection and a novel diagnostic scheme. The fields, designed as replicates, exhibit different hydrological behaviors which yield different model performances. For fields with low initial discharge levels at the beginning of events, the conceptual stores considered reach their limit of applicability. Conversely, one of the fields yielding more discharge than the others, but having larger data gaps, allows for greater flexibility in the choice of model structures. As a model learning exercise, the study points to a “leaking” of the fields not evident from previous field experiments. It is discussed how understanding observational uncertainties and incorporating these into model diagnostics can help appreciate the scale of model structural error

Technical note: testing an improved index for analysing storm discharge-concentration hysteresis

Analysis of hydrochemical behaviour during storm events can provide new insights into the process controls on nutrient transport in catchments. The examination of storm behaviours using hysteresis analysis has increased in recent years, partly due to the increased availability of high temporal resolution data sets for discharge and water quality parameters. A number of these analyses involve the use of an index to describe the characteristics of a hysteresis loop in order to compare storm behaviours both within and between catchments. This technical note reviews the methods for calculation of the hysteresis index (HI) and explores a new more effective methodology. Each method is systematically tested and the impact of the chosen calculation on the results is examined. Recommendations are made regarding the most effective method of calculating a HI which can be used for comparing data between storms and between different water quality parameters and catchments